The portfolio is beating the market

The portfolio is doing much better than the market (S&P500) and increasingly beating the market the more time that passes, this is the impact of it consistently beating the market and compound interest. Based on my past performance, I predict the portfolio to return 20-40% annually on average in the long run (see my calculations and assumptions below).

When comparing the portfolio against the S&P500 on a monthly basis, it shows the portfolio does better in a positive as well as a negative market in most months. This is really positive and shows the resilience of the portfolio over time.

When looking specifically at the difference each month, between the portfolio and the S&P 500, the portfolio is doing better than the market in more than 50% of the months. On average the portfolio has done better than the market as shown with the greyed area below.

With two full years of trading statistic, I have tried to predict my expectations for the future portfolio returns. Important to note that past returns is no guarantee for future returns.

A couple of assumptions used for the calculations below:

  • The S&P500 return 7-9% annually over time
  • The portfolio continues to deliver better than the S&P500 by an average of 2.2% as it has done on average through 2019 and 2020


S&P 500 return 0.65% per month => 8% p.a.
Portfolio overperformance 2.20% per month
Total portfolio performance 2.85% per month => 40.1% p.a.

To be a bit ‘conservative in the predictions, because it after all is based only on two (good) years of statistics, a second calculation where the anticipated monthly overperformance is reduced to 1%.


S&P 500 return 0.65% per month => 8% p.a.
Portfolio overperformance 1.00% per month
Total portfolio performance 1.65% per month => 21.7% p.a.

Based on these calcualtions, my best estimate for future returns is between 20-40% per year on average. Some years will be better and some will be worse, but I am confident the portfolio will continue to outperform the S&P500 in the long run.

Note that past returns are no guarantee for future returns.